Market Projections | March 7, 2022
Q1 2022 Investment Outlook: What the Heck Happened to Our Punchbowl?
Whatever fiscal policy has poured into the punchbowl to date is likely to be all the liquid refreshment America gets for the foreseeable future. The U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed) hasn’t told us how high it’s going to push short-term interest rates or over what period, but it appears that at least three one-quarter-point raises are going to greet the partygoers in 2022. In addition, spiking the punch with a nice dose of buying billions of Treasury securities is also probably ending, perhaps simultaneously, without new fiscal stimulus and rate increases.
When less is poured into the punchbowl, the options are simple: someone has to add something or people decide to leave the party. With the Fed raising rates, it is less likely that folks will want to buy fruit punch and spirits.
Yet there are several reasons to think the party may be volatile, but still be a good time:
- Wages are rising more than they have in a long time.
- GDP growth is the highest it has been in 40 years.
- Long-term interest rates have only modestly increased.
- Consumer and business balance sheets are extremely healthy.
- The spread of COVID-19 seems to be slowing.
What is our outlook?
We see equity returns being modestly below long-term expectations, with the U.S. still slightly outpacing the rest of the world’s total return, but both ending the year in positive territory. We think the next 12 to 18 months will be more volatile.
Famous lyrics — you would cry too if this happened to you! Tears will continue to be shed for most traditional fixed income markets and holders.
Even if longer rates stay relatively flat, fixed income investors will earn a negative real return unless they push well out on the quality curve. Focusing on the intermediate (three- to five-) year lockups seems to be a good option.
For the most part, alternative investments have delivered consistent returns across a broad spectrum of exposures and types. We think that will continue with the inevitable bumps and grinds along the way and a premium on selecting the best available options.
Investing successfully requires discipline, process and a plan. Play the long game, hire great advisors to augment what you do, rebalance and don’t be fooled by pundits or prognosticators.
What does our outlook cover?
The Q1 2022 Investment Outlook includes tables that provide a snapshot of our forward-looking observations on the key macroeconomic factors driving markets and the direction of specific asset classes.
Global macro signals and outlook
We cover these global macro signals for developed markets and emerging markets:
- GDP growth
- Inflation
- Policy rate
- Currency
- Equity valuations
Asset class signals and outlook
For 24 asset classes, we select one of five outlook signals based on our 12–18 month perspective relative to our 10+-year CMAs. The signals range from an above-normal return outlook to a below-normal return outlook.
The asset classes include equities, fixed income and these alternatives:
- Hedge funds
- Multi-asset class strategies
- Private equity
- Real estate
- Infrastructure
- Commodities
- Energy
- Timber
- Farmland
See more insights
Q4 2021 Investment Outlook: The Global Economy on Edge
Q3 2021 Investment Outlook: A Rose by Any Other Name Would Smell as Sweet
Q2 2021 Investment Outlook: Is the Stimulus Endgame a Phoenix or an Icarus?
The information and opinions herein provided by third parties have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. This article and the data and analysis herein is intended for general education only and not as investment advice. It is not intended for use as a basis for investment decisions, nor should it be construed as advice designed to meet the needs of any particular investor. On all matters involving legal interpretations and regulatory issues, investors should consult legal counsel.
