Powell’s comments fall under the heading of the monetary policy tool known as “forward guidance.” Back in 2015, the Fed gave us insight into that tool, telling us that it provides communication to the public about the likely future course of policy.

It was John Maynard Keynes who said, “When the facts change, I change my mind — what do you do, sir?” This is how one should interpret the guidance we are now getting from the Fed: We don’t see permanent 70s-like inflation on the horizon based upon everything we know, but we do see stubborn unemployment.

Given that we have had a long period of under-target inflation, we think we can stay accommodative with the expectation that inflation has some room to run while the U.S. economy returns to a more normal employment environment. We continue to take the Fed at its word on U.S. inflation, so easy monetary policy will dominate.

What does our outlook cover?

The Q3 2021 Investment Outlook includes tables that provide a snapshot of our forward-looking observations on the key macroeconomic factors driving markets and the direction of specific asset classes.

Global macro signals and outlook

We cover these global macro signals for developed markets and emerging markets:

• GDP growth
• Inflation
• Policy rate
• Currency
• Equity valuations

Asset class signals and outlook

For 24 asset classes, we select one of five outlook signals based on our 12–18 month perspective relative to our 10+-year CMAs. The signals range from an above-normal return outlook to a below-normal return outlook.

The asset classes include equities, fixed income and these alternatives:

• Hedge funds
• Multi-asset class strategies
• Private equity
• Real estate
• Infrastructure
• Commodities
• Energy
• Timber
• Farmland