Market Projections | August 19, 2021
On June 21, 2021, U.S. Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted, “as these transitory supply effects abate, inflation is expected to drop back toward our longer-run goal.” A few weeks later, he said about inflation, “to the extent that it is temporary, then it wouldn’t be appropriate to react to it. But to the extent that it gets longer and longer, we’ll have to continue to re-evaluate the risks that would affect inflation expectations.” Most significantly, under the backdrop of a view that inflation is, in fact, transitory, he noted, “There’s still a lot of unemployed people out there. We think it’s important for monetary policy to remain accommodative, and supportive of economic activity, for now.”
Powell’s comments fall under the heading of the monetary policy tool known as “forward guidance.” Back in 2015, the Fed gave us insight into that tool, telling us that it provides communication to the public about the likely future course of policy.
It was John Maynard Keynes who said, “When the facts change, I change my mind — what do you do, sir?” This is how one should interpret the guidance we are now getting from the Fed: We don’t see permanent 70s-like inflation on the horizon based upon everything we know, but we do see stubborn unemployment.
Given that we have had a long period of under-target inflation, we think we can stay accommodative with the expectation that inflation has some room to run while the U.S. economy returns to a more normal employment environment. We continue to take the Fed at its word on U.S. inflation, so easy monetary policy will dominate.
The Q3 2021 Investment Outlook includes tables that provide a snapshot of our forward-looking observations on the key macroeconomic factors driving markets and the direction of specific asset classes.
We cover these global macro signals for developed markets and emerging markets:
For 24 asset classes, we select one of five outlook signals based on our 12–18 month perspective relative to our 10+-year CMAs. The signals range from an above-normal return outlook to a below-normal return outlook.
The asset classes include equities, fixed income and these alternatives:
Segal Marco Advisors provides consulting advice on asset allocation, investment strategy, manager searches, performance measurement and related issues. The information and opinions herein provided by third parties have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. This article and the data and analysis herein is intended for general education only and not as investment advice. It is not intended for use as a basis for investment decisions, nor should it be construed as advice designed to meet the needs of any particular investor. Please contact Segal Marco Advisors or another qualified investment professional for advice regarding the evaluation of any specific information, opinion, advice, or other content. Of course, on all matters involving legal interpretations and regulatory issues, investors should consult legal counsel.
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