Articles | July 12, 2024

June 2024 Market Update: And So, It Begins?

The first G7 country cut interest rates during the quarter, as Canada dropped their target interest rate in June. The next day, on June 7, the European Central Bank followed suit, dropping rates by 25 basis points to 3.75 percent, while the U.S. (5.25 percent–5.5 percent) and UK (at 5.25 percent) left rates unchanged during the quarter. So far in 2024 there have been 20 interest rate cuts around the globe, more than the last two years combined (see chart below).

June 2024 And So, It Begins

 

Source: FactSet.com
* Global Central Banks data includes Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Czech Republic, Euro Area, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Israel, Japan, Korea, Mexico, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Sweden, Turkey, United Kingdom, United States
Data period ending: 6/30/2024

 

Despite modestly lower inflation data for May, the Federal Reserve indicated that inflation is not down to levels where they would consider a rate cut appropriate, for the moment. According to the which forecasts interest rates, the Federal Reserve’s median expectation is for one rate cut in 2024. With inflation seemingly on the right trajectory, and probabilities for multiple rate cuts in 2024 down dramatically from the start of the year, one could assume that rates really have peaked. Time will tell, as interest rate prognostications have historically been difficult.

The markets, meanwhile, had mixed performance in the month and quarter, with positive returns for large cap growth, which continues to dominate both U.S. and non-U.S. market performance. However, bonds had a positive month and eked out a positive quarter across most sectors domestically.

 

June 2024 Investment Performance Compared v. Year-to-Date Performance

Equities June 2024 (%) Year to Date 2024
All Cap U.S. Stocks

 

 

Russell 3000 3.1 13.6
Growth 6.4 19.9
Value -1.0 6.2
Large Cap U.S. Stocks

 

 

S&P 500® 3.6 15.3

Russell 1000

3.3 14.2
Growth 6.7 20.7
Value -0.9 6.6

Mid Cap U.S. Stocks

 

 

S&P 400

-1.6 6.2

Russell Midcap

-0.7 5.0
Growth 1.7 6.0
Value -1.6 4.5
Small Cap U.S. Stocks

 

 

S&P 600 -2.3 -0.7
Russell 2000 -0.9 1.7
Growth -0.2 4.4
Value -1.7 -0.8
International

 

 

MSCI EAFE NR (USD) -1.6 5.3
MSCI EAFE NR (LOC) -0.6 11.1
MSCI EM NR (USD) 3.9 7.5
MSCI EM NR (LOC) 4.3 11.0

 

 

Fixed Income June 2024 (%) Year to Date 2024
Bloomberg

 

 

U.S. Aggregate 0.9 -0.7
U.S. Treasury: 1-3 Year 0.6 1.2
U.S. Treasury 1.0 -0.9
U.S. Treasury Long 1.7 -5.0
U.S. TIPS 0.8 0.7
U.S. Credit: 1-3 Year 0.5 1.8
U.S. Intermediate Credit 0.7 0.9
U.S. Credit 0.7 -0.5
U.S. Intermediate G/C 0.8 0.5
U.S. Govt/Credit 0.9 -0.7
U.S. Govt/Credit Long 1.1 -4.1
U.S. MBS 1.2 -1.0
U.S. Corp High Yield 0.9 2.6
Global Aggregate (USD) 0.1 -3.2
Emerging Markets (USD) 0.6 2.2
Morningstar/LSTA

 

 

Leveraged Loan 0.3 4.3

 

 

Alternatives June 2024 Year to Date 2024
Bloomberg Commodity -1.5 5.1
S&P GSCI 1.4 11.1

Sources: Standard & Poor's, Bloomberg, MSCI and Russell

The S&P indices are a product of S&P Dow Jones Indices, LLC and/or its affiliates (collectively, “S&P Dow Jones”) and has been licensed for use by Segal Marco Advisors. ©2024 S&P Dow Jones Indices, LLC a division of S&P Global Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Please see www.spdji.com for additional information about trademarks and limitations of liability.

Equity markets

The AI-driven, growth-oriented equity backdrop continued in the month of June, with growth beating value by over 700 basis points (Russell 1000 Growth 6.4 percent, Russell Value -1.0 percent) and the quarter having an even wider spread at 8.8 percent for the growth index versus -2.2 percent for the value index. Small and mid-capitalization stocks also performed poorly in the month (Russell 2000 -0.9 percent, Russell Midcap -0.7 percent) and quarter (Russell 2000 and Russell Midcap both at -3.3 percent) as the higher-for-longer environment has a greater impact on smaller companies.

Outside of the U.S. performance in the month was also negative for Developed markets (EAFE -1.6 percent), but emerging markets had a strong month and quarter due to the Asia-related tech hubs of Korea (8.9 percent in the month) and Taiwan (12 percent in the month) leading the index higher, as well as the continued strong performance of India this year (7.0 percent in the month, 10.4 percent for the quarter) as it benefits from the China divestment story.  

Fixed income

The Bloomberg Aggregate was positive for the month at 0.9 percent and for the quarter at 0.1 percent, the first positive quarter for bonds so far in 2024. Fixed income assets around the globe provided a positive return in the month of June. With the exception of non-U.S. fixed income and longer-dated bonds, fixed income assets were also positive in the quarter. The markets seems to be adjusting to the higher-for-longer narrative and is instead focused on the positives of resilient growth and real yields. 

Of note

Commercial real estate prices have continued to decline this year, albeit at a slower pace, while income has remained steady (see chart below). In contrast, U.S. housing prices increased until the most recent month (second chart below). This dichotomy points to the current environment for real estate assets, namely that there are haves and have-nots. This is true by type of real estate and by location.  

 

NCREIF-ODCE Index Performance

Jun 24 Market Update Graph 2

Source: Factset, NCREIF

U.S. Home Sales

Jun 24 Market Update Graph 3

Source: Factset

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The information and opinions herein provided by third parties have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. This article and the data and analysis herein is intended for general education only and not as investment advice. It is not intended for use as a basis for investment decisions, nor should it be construed as advice designed to meet the needs of any particular investor. On all matters involving legal interpretations and regulatory issues, investors should consult legal counsel.

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