Articles | October 7, 2025
The halls of Congress resonated with the sights and sounds of partisan political brinkmanship, as Democrat and Republican lawmakers engaged in a stare-down regarding the approval of a government spending program for the next fiscal year, starting October 1.
Both sides were firmly entrenched in their positions, as Democrats sought to extend healthcare benefit subsidies due to expire at end of the year, and Republicans steadfastly held that such negotiations should be conducted separately and decoupled from the passing of a spending bill to fund the government. While neither side desires to be tagged as the party responsible for a disruptive shutdown, that is exactly where they headed as the second Senate vote to approve a temporary spending bill did not pass (Republicans required seven Democrat votes to move the legislation to the House), and the current funding plan in place for the federal government expired as of 12:01 am EST this morning.
So, what happens now? For historical perspective, over the past fifty years there have been 21 federal government shutdowns of varying durations. While many of these lasted only a few days before resolution, it is worth noting that the most recent lasted 35 days and occurred in the first Trump administration in 2018-2019, as both parties faced off about immigration and border security. The key issue at play this time is the $1.7T that funds federal agency operations, which represents approximately 25 percent of the government’s $7T budget. With no deal on the table, the following are some repercussions of a shutdown:
The broader economic or market impact of a shutdown will depend on the duration. A short-term pause in federal spending would have less severe consequences than a longer-term freeze. For reference, the CBO estimated that during the first Trump term shutdown of 35 days, economic output was reduced by $11B over two quarters. While some of that sum was made up with a restoration of government operations, the CBO further stated that about $3B of economic output was estimated to be permanently lost.
In terms of the markets, the delay in receiving critical employment data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics will complicate the Fed’s decision-making at the October meeting. Further, the SEC closure will impact the IPO market and the IPO calendar as well as private equity, at least in the short term. Finally, the effect on consumer sentiment and potential for consumer spending will depend on the length of the shutdown. Interestingly, while the shutdown was widely expected, the stock market took the threat of an imminent shutdown somewhat in stride as all major indexes moved a tad higher on September 30.
The information and opinions herein provided by third parties have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. This article and the data and analysis herein is intended for general education only and not as investment advice. It is not intended for use as a basis for investment decisions, nor should it be construed as advice designed to meet the needs of any particular investor. On all matters involving legal interpretations and regulatory issues, investors should consult legal counsel.
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